Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
