Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.